Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.634222 2.148759 2.840340 3.860738 5.368375e+00 7.582060 1.121450e+01
2024-12-15 1.184053 1.778481 2.728627 4.447798 7.700733e+00 14.125615 2.948820e+01
2024-12-22 0.888046 1.487644 2.598005 5.016981 1.086249e+01 26.851838 8.863544e+01
2024-12-29 0.696839 1.286190 2.535473 5.799897 1.603811e+01 57.447556 3.814515e+02
2025-01-05 0.552318 1.109047 2.441101 6.580751 2.361602e+01 133.865319 2.861088e+03
2025-01-12 0.415350 0.887039 2.123108 6.530464 2.945536e+01 267.729498 3.711708e+04
2025-01-19 0.311849 0.698690 1.788337 6.142567 3.405737e+01 509.966487 4.970944e+06
2025-01-26 0.254097 0.600338 1.658583 6.495697 4.698516e+01 1538.568994 NaN
2025-02-02 0.220520 0.552260 1.663501 7.616118 7.819044e+01 10471.461749 NaN
2025-02-09 0.196873 0.522607 1.721242 9.347540 1.480609e+02 446627.767849 NaN
2025-02-16 0.169494 0.469744 1.656049 10.314247 2.426135e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 0.141362 0.403016 1.487083 10.189690 3.254868e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 0.115331 0.336312 1.287649 9.554398 4.029751e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 0.101553 0.307644 1.255134 10.733568 7.906997e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.089428 0.280198 1.210651 11.838065 1.620756e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 0.080190 0.260149 1.194125 13.536912 4.249754e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.071913 0.240620 1.166718 15.216409 1.294714e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.061969 0.210376 1.047043 14.630241 2.271680e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.052937 0.181118 0.914216 13.266990 2.991327e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.047474 0.165663 0.866931 13.889448 1.014528e+05 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.044272 0.159132 0.879796 16.486881 2.464084e+06 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.041979 0.155930 0.917487 20.728671 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.038673 0.146658 0.898132 23.011180 NaN NaN NaN